
Animation starts after 10 seconds and is repeated continuously. Shifting of climate zones according to the IPCC’s worst case scenario (A1FI): a temperature rise between +2,4 and 6,4 degrees centrigrate until 2100 due to high economic and population growth, accompanied by high fossil fuel comsumption; after 2050, the increased use of renewable energy sources leads to emission decreases. The 13 different climate zones shown in this graph are based on simplified versions of the Köppen-Geiger climate classifications. Image: Ökologix (Own work) CC BY-SA 3.0
Ban Ki-moon says #COP21 must be turning point towards a low-carbon, climate-resilient future https://t.co/WZEFQdaN3U pic.twitter.com/MJl0j6q56K
— Christiana Figueres (@CFigueres) 25. November 2015
This science forms the basis for global diplomatic and environment policy efforts. When asked whether the two-degree target is even achievable given the continued rise in CO2 emissions, the physicist Anders Levermann from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) offered a very clear answer: “The two-degree target is technically possible. But society has to decide for itself whether it is economically and politically possible to move away from fossil fuels.” What is the current situation at international climate conferences? The so-called United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) forms the basis for action on this matter, with 195 member states having signed up to date. The body’s secretariat, which is based in Bonn (Germany), has the same title. All member states obligate themselves to regularly publish reports on their current greenhouse gas emissions and come together every year for a ‘climate summit’. The upcoming summit in Paris is particularly important for the process of finally setting an obligatory climate target that every one of the member states has to adhere to. That is why this year’s conference has been preceded by several large-scale meetings on a scientific and political level. While a total of 164 states have already submitted written commitments, these would still be insufficient for achieving the two-degree target. Moreover, the countries worst effected by climate change are pushing for the enforcement of a 1.5-degree target.
2015 set to be warmest on record as climate change & #ElNiño join forces – @WMOnews https://t.co/es6DWJWgUl #COP21 pic.twitter.com/3U3lzHNFnu — United Nations (@UN) 25. November 2015
There is certainly no shortage of serious warnings as to what could happen if negotiations in Paris were to fail. The World Bank’s report from the start of November carried the telling title “Shock Waves. Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty” and claimed that if rapid action isn’t taken, a further 100 million people could slip into poverty by 2030. There can therefore be little doubt that climate change would create further increases in refugee flows in the future.
Sustained global warming will continued to promote the desertification of the Middle East, which will only serve to intensify social and political tensions in the region. In the case of the Syrian civil war, one study even suggests that climate change could have been a decisive trigger in the outbreak of violence. The civil war was preceded by an extremely dry period, which led to rural-urban migration and additional distribution and resource conflicts in the urban centres.
The task for the future is therefore to save liveable areas with suitable measures. Unfortunately, the summit was dramatically preceded by the deadly attacks in Paris on 13 November 2015. Due to the threat of terrorism, all large events surrounding the climate conference, such as demonstrations and concerts, have had to be cancelled for safety reasons.
No more excuses. It’s time to #ActOnClimate: https://t.co/XzQX5J0jpA pic.twitter.com/9mtCVvNiLx
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) 23. November 2015
After the attacks, many leading politicians immediately emphasised that the threat of terrorism would not prevent them from taking part. But this commitment alone is not enough – they now have to be prepared to make uncomfortable decisions going forward.